10 Fastest Rising & 10 Falling NZ Suburbs
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CoreLogic has released a list of suburbs with the fastest-rising and fastest-falling house values throughout New Zealand
House values in most lower socioeconomic areas have been rising in the year to March 2019 while values in the $1m-plus on Auckland's North Shore fell the most.
Firstly, we must acknowledge that some results vary from other recently released market analysis. Particularly, REINZ data stating 30% growth or falls in some suburbs of Auckland.
It’s important to note that the data used was based on the median sales price and only represented what happened to sell over two separate periods. Today, I’m focusing on the actual change in the value of all properties in each suburb.
Why is that important? A quick comparison of a real-life example in Takapuna shows it quite clearly. There are a total of 2,905 residential properties in Takapuna. The median value of these 2,905 properties was $1,781,450 at the end of March 2018.
In the 6 months to the end of March 2018, there were 83 residential sales in Takapuna where an agent was involved. This represents only 2.9% of all properties. The median sales price of these 83 properties was $1,000,000. Clearly, these 83 properties don’t represent the whole suburb – there were a lot more lower-value (for Takapuna) property sales over that 6 month period than higher-value.
Fast forward a year (to the end of March 2019) and the median value of all those 2,905 properties is now $1,713,400 – a drop of 3.8%. This is relatively indicative of a weakening market, as is the case across the city with fewer buyers and more properties for sale.
However, the median sales price for the 6 months to the end of March 2019 was $1,300,000; a whopping 30% increase. This is from just 67 residential property sales (by agents), or 2.3% of all properties. So while there are fewer sales overall, a greater share of them are in higher value bands this year than last.
Why? It could be anything – from certain agents or agencies dominating one year to the next, to buyers’ confidence shifting in a changing market. We don’t really know.
One thing is for sure, the change in a median sales price tells you nothing about the performance of the overall property market in that area.
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