COVID statistics
I thought it might be reassuring to share some of the data around Covid risk that we don't seem to see in the news. While it is undoubtedly a serious health concern for some at the moment, it is also important to keep the risk in perspective for the sake of personal mental health wellbeing. Despite what seems to make the news, we are very unlikely to die from this virus, or even show serious to critical symptoms. The following link is the raw data on country statistics comparing testing rates, case fatality rates, recovery rates for the 5 million reported cases so far www.worldometers.info... . You can see how NZ ranks globally on these metrics (somewhere in the middle of 215 countries for most measures). The data focuses on reported cases, which as the following link explains, overestimates frequency for the worst case outcomes. The link goes to the Oxford University Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (do your own research on how credible you think they are) which analyses the case data, and uses health records and studies on what was known about SARS/ MERS/ Swine flu to estimate what the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Covid-19 is likely to be (as opposed to the less reliable Case Fatality Rate (CFR)) www.cebm.net... . Draw your own conclusions but these sites show either factual information or use data science to provide a risk profile. In summary the estimated IFR for Covid is between 0.1% to 0.41% (i.e. chance of survival 99.6-99.9% for person selected at random). While this is also age dependent, the estimated IFR for otherwise healthy 70+ age group is still likely less than 1%. Some interesting points also made about selection bias, and coding of cases and outcomes that skew the reported results.
Poll: Is dumping an issue in your neighbourhood?
There's nothing worse than strolling around the streets in your neighbourhood and seeing dumped rubbish.
Have you noticed this in your area? What could we do to combat this around the country?
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43.5% Yes, I've seen some illegal dumping
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55.9% No, our neighbourhood is pretty good
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0.7% Other - I'll share below
Riddle time: Because lawn mowing can wait!
George, Helen, and Steve are drinking coffee. Bert, Karen, and Dave are drinking soft drinks.
Following this pattern, is Elizabeth drinking coffee or a soft drink?
Do you think you know the answer to our daily riddle? Don't spoil it for your neighbours! Simply 'Like' this post and we'll post the answer in the comments below at 2pm.
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This one was sent in by your fellow neighbour, can you figure it out?
What is first white then red and the plumper it gets the more the old lady likes it?
Do you think you know the answer to our daily riddle? Don't spoil it for your neighbours! Simply 'Like' this post and we'll post the answer in the comments below at 2pm.
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