Census ‘anomalies’ leave council staff scratching their heads
By David Hill, Local Democracy Reporter
‘‘Anomalies’’ in Census data on North Canterbury's population growth is creating a headache for a local council.
The Hurunui District Council’s south ward, including Amberley, has experienced a building boom in recent years, but this is not reflected in the latest provisional Census data on population growth.
According to Census data released earlier this year, Hurunui’s south ward had a population of 5620 in March 2023, an increase of 410 people from the 2018 Census.
This suggests an increase of 1.53% a year over the last five years, much lower than the yearly average increase for the ward of 2.45% since 2001.
But council chief executive Hamish Dobbie said the council’s own data suggests a much larger population increase.
‘‘We would rate the period 2018 to 2023 as a high growth period. You’ve just got to look at the number of houses being built.
‘‘Maybe when they did the Census, people weren’t in their houses and did it somewhere else.
‘‘There is something that doesn’t add up, or maybe it is right and the population was over estimated in 2018.’’
A Stats NZ spokesperson said the current calculations are subject to change and net migration can be difficult to estimate.
Over the last five years, the council has issued 373 consents for new houses in the south ward, mostly for three or four bedroom houses.
Dobbie did not believe there were lots of empty houses in Amberley.
If Census data is unreliable, it can complicate council planning, he said.
But he acknowledged predicting population is ‘‘an inexact science’’.
‘‘It is when you don’t know there are anomalies that you can get things wrong.’’
When the council conducted a representation review ahead of next year’s local government election, it had to rely on 2018 Census data as the 2023 data was not available.
A rapidly rising population formed part of the reasoning behind a proposal to establish a community board for the south ward.
But when presenting to the Local Government Commission last week, the council presented the 2023 Census data while noting the number consents issued.
‘‘We do our own numbers for planning for things like water supply,’’ Dobbie said.
‘‘If we utilised growth numbers that come from the Census, we wouldn’t have water available when it is needed.’’
A Stats NZ spokesperson said the figures for Hurunui’s south ward compared the 2018 Census with population estimates and projections.
‘‘Estimated population change for an area comes from estimated natural increase (births minus deaths), plus estimated net migration.’’
Migration is hard to estimate because there is no single authoritative data source to measure migration into and out of an area, the spokesperson said.
‘‘Estimates for June 2023 are provisional and subject to revision,’’ the spokesperson said.
Building consents are useful, but not all consents result in completed houses, there is a lag between consent and occupancy, some are for second homes and some are to replace demolished buildings.
A second release of 2023 Census data is due on October 3, while population estimates will be revised next year.
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown said the Government is not considering allowing alternative data sources to be considered in representation reviews.
"Representation review data looks at the entire population, not just ratepayers or those eligible to vote, so care would be needed in considering whether alternative data sources could be used in the future.''
■ LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
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New Amberley cricket ground gets green light
By David Hill, Local Democracy Reporter
Amberley is set to get a new cricket ground, despite some community opposition.
The Hurunui District Council approved plans to allow the development of the Amberley Village Green (formerly Eastern Reserve), to the east of the town centre, which will include a cricket ground, at a council meeting on Tuesday, November 26.
Around 120 submissions favoured the development of recreation in the reserve over a cricket ground, during the council’s recent reserve management plan consultation.
At Tuesday’s meeting, councillors approved a plan to install an irrigation system, with water sourced from a submersible bore pump.
Staff have been authorised to tender for the development of a playing surface, excluding the wicket block which will be developed by the Amberley Cricket Club.
A pathway around the perimeter of the reserve and public toilets will also be developed.
A cricket ground was first mooted for the reserve a decade ago when the land was set aside by the developer.
A budget of about $900,000 has been set aside, with 90% from development contributions.
An updated concept plan tabled at the meeting makes provision for other sports and activities such as basketball, a scooter track, a playground and car parking.
Several councillors expressed reservations about the proposed size of the cricket ground.
Councillor Garry Jackson said proposed the cricket ground was close to international standard and could be reduced by 20 percent and still be ‘‘appropriate as a village green club cricket ground’’.
While she acknowledged Jackson’s concerns, councillor Pauline While said the council needed to move forward, and councillor Fiona Harris said the cricket club had been ‘‘patient for long enough’’.
Councillor Robbie Bruerton said ‘‘it is being talked about as if it is only going to be used for cricket, but it can by used for any sport’’.
Councillor Vanessa McPherson voted against the proposal as she said the process had been ‘‘undemocratic’’ in the beginning.
‘‘I am concerned there is not enough funds for a decent children’s playground. I am angry and frustrated by this. It is so unfair.’’
Earlier in the meeting Amberley ratepayer John Weyers urged councillors to vote against establishing another cricket ground.
He said cricket is already being played at the Amberley Domain and ‘‘there is no reason why cricket and football cannot co-exist’’.
While there had been a dispute between the cricket and football clubs, he believed it has now been resolved.
‘‘Amberley is growing and we have an ageing population and a growing number of young families, but we are lacking spaces for recreation.’’
Councillors noted there has been confusion about the name of the new reserve, between the Village Green and the Eastern Reserve.
Council chief executive Hamish Dobbie said ‘‘Village Green’’ was the name put forward by the council’s south ward committee.
Dobbie said the council’s reserve management plan will be presented to councillors at a future meeting for adoption.
■ LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
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