Record numbers are leaving NZ – who could blame them?
Migration figures show a record number of New Zealanders are choosing not to stick around – and you don’t have to look hard to figure out why, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
No data point says more about the current state of our country than the fact that record numbers of New Zealanders don’t want to be here.
Over the last two years, the quarterly release of migration statistics has steadily plotted a massive exodus of New Zealand citizens.
Once all citizen returns and departures were accounted for in the year to March 31, provisional net numbers indicated New Zealand lost more than a thousand Kiwis every week.
But why?
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The pandemic restrictions are over and the borders have been open for New Zealanders for more than two years.
Pent-up demand for overseas adventure could explain the initial post-Covid surge in departures, and some New Zealanders who returned during the worst of Covid-19 have left again. But the more recent departures are better attributed to other factors.
As I’ve noted before, what’s perhaps most extraordinary about the huge outward migration of New Zealand citizens is it has coincided with near-record inbound migration of non-citizens.
Facing pressure from business groups amidst a global labour shortage, the previous government responded by massively relaxing immigration settings.
In the year to March 31, New Zealand recorded a net migration gain of 163,000 non-citizens.
Accounting for both the provisional citizen and non-citizen migration flows, there are 111,000 extra people in New Zealand than the year before. Add to that the births and deaths for the same period, and our overall population has increased by approximately 130,000 people in the last year.
During the same period, however, the number of consents issued for new houses dropped 25% on the previous 12 months.
As our population surges and construction slows, the average rent paid by the generation of New Zealanders most likely not to own their own homes has increased. TradeMe Property recorded a median rent increase of 8.3% in the year to March 2024 — more than double the corresponding annual increase in wages.
This renting generation, coincidentally, is the same generation most likely to have left New Zealand.
Of all migrant departures of New Zealand citizens, people between the ages of 18 and 30 made up almost 40%.
But even older New Zealanders — who are more likely to have established careers, families, and assets — are leaving in huge numbers. Accounting for all arrivals and departures, a net total of more than 7500 New Zealand citizens between the ages of 31-40 left our shores.
So, what will stem the bleed?
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In the short term, at least, there is perhaps little economic reason to stay.
The new Government has moved swiftly to tighten immigration settings but, as the full impact of higher interest rates seeps through the economy, unemployment is steadily increasing.
The national unemployment rate currently sits at 4.3% and most economists expect it to climb above 5% in the coming months. The Māori unemployment rate is already at its highest point in four years at 8.2%.
Young Zealanders now find themselves competing with more people for relatively fewer houses and relatively fewer jobs.
And, as we enter a winter of economic discontent, who could blame them for leaving?
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Some Choice News!
Many New Zealand gardens aren’t seeing as many monarch butterflies fluttering around their swan plants and flower beds these days — the hungry Asian paper wasp has been taking its toll.
Thanks to people like Alan Baldick, who’s made it his mission to protect the monarch, his neighbours still get to enjoy these beautiful butterflies in their own backyards.
Thinking about planting something to invite more butterflies, bees, and birds into your garden?
Thanks for your mahi, Alan! We hope this brings a smile!
Wayne Brown backed by billionaires and developers in $611k campaign haul
Celebrities, billionaire Graeme Hart and a who’s who of property developers each gave up to $50,000 to fund Wayne Brown’s mayoral re-election campaign.
Electoral returns made public today show Brown was flush with about $606,000 in campaign funds, while his only serious competitor, Whau councillor Kerrin Leoni, received just $16,076 in four donations over the $1500 declaration limit.
She relied heavily on donations of less than $1500 to raise $83,111.83 to run her campaign, while Brown spent $323,872, with nearly $280,00 left over from his wealthy donors.
Leoni, a low-profile first-term councillor, stood little chance against the high-profile Brown, who romped home for a second term by a margin of 100,000 votes.
Among the donors who gave $5000 to Brown were former All Black and Waiheke resident Marc Ellis, and Black Knights Football, which refers to Auckland FC, of which former All Black Ali Williams and his wife Anna Mowbray are minority co-owners.
Williams attended Brown’s election-night party at the West End Tennis Club at Coxs Bay, a short walk from the $24 million coastal home he shares with Mowbray.
Through his Rank Group company, Hart, who is worth an estimated $12.1 billion, gave $50,000 to Brown’s campaign. Property investment firm Tramco Group, whose directors own big landholdings on the Auckland waterfront, also chipped in with $50,000.
Other donors included Precinct Properties ($10,000), engineering firm BECA ($5000), Park Hyatt Hotel ($18,400), Hancocks Wine ($8000), Golf Warehouse ($20,000), Bayleys Real Estate ($10,000) and Hopper Developments ($5000).
Leoni, who was the Labour councillor for Whau but stood as an independent in the mayoral race, received donations from former Auckland Mayor and Labour leader Phil Goff ($1500), former Labour minister Judith Tizard ($5000) and longtime Labour operative Greg Presland ($7576).
She said Brown had the advantage of building relationships during his first term to raise donations, but she was proud of obtaining 20% of the vote by raising and spending $83,000.
The greater handicap during the election campaign was the lack of mainstream media coverage, with live television debates largely watched by older people, who formed the largest group of voters, she said.
The election resulted in the lowest super city turnout of under 30%.
Leoni, a mother of twins who has degrees in politics and economics, Māori development and social services, said she was having a break from the council to refocus and would decide on what to do next in the New Year.
Brown, who has said he will not seek a third term, declined to say what would happen to the nearly $280,000 left over from his campaign, saying he does not comment on other people’s donations, except to say they were a sign of the level of support for what candidates stood for.
Auckland Council electoral officer Dale Ofsoske said there were no rules governing how candidates used leftover campaign funds, though many choose to keep them for future campaigns.
Candidates could do what they liked with the money, he said.
Three years ago, Brown raised $310,000 in donations and had to dig into his own pocket to top up the $470,00 cost of his campaign.
Donations of $10,000 or more to Wayne Brown
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Tramco Group - $50,000
Rank Group - $50,000
CP Group - Aphi Funds manager - $25,000
Peninsula Capital $25,000
Knight Investments Ltd - D Nakhle - $20,000
Hugh Green Ltd - $20,000
Stonewood Group - $20,000
Golf Warehouse - $20,000
Aedifice Development - $20,000
AHL Park Hyatt Hotel - $18,400
Clifftop Services - PC Cooper - $15,000
Mr MJ Todd - $15,000
Gilligan Rowe & Associates - $11,000
Liu Vincent - $10,000
Southside Group - Chris Jones - $10,000
Van Den Brink - $10,000
Williams Corporation - M. Horncastle - $10,000
Precinct Properties - $10,000
Oyster Capital - $10,000
Bayleys Real Estate - $10,000
N McKenna - $10,000
Donations of $1500 or more to Kerrin Leoni
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Greg Presland - $7576
Judith Tizard - $5000
Te Ata Thompson - $2000
Phil Goff - $1500
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Poll: Are our Kiwi summer holidays helping us recharge, or holding the economy back? ☀️🥝
There’s growing debate about whether New Zealand’s extended Christmas break (and the slowdown that comes with it) affects productivity.
Tracy Watkins has weighed in ... now it’s your turn. What’s your take? 🤔
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72.3% We work hard, we deserve a break!
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16.1% Hmm, maybe?
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11.6% Yes!
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