Alpine Fault quake risk higher than experts thought
New research reveals the chances of the South Island’s Alpine Fault generating a damaging earthquake in the next 50 years are much higher than previously thought.
New research led by Te Herenga Waka–Victoria University of Wellington senior lecturer Dr Jamie Howarth shows the probability of that earthquake occurring before 2068 is about 75 per cent.
Until now, it had been thought to be about 30 per cent, based on sequences of sediment deposited adjacent to the Alpine Fault in northern Fiordland.
Scientists from Victoria University, the University of Otago, GNS Science, the University of California, and the United States Geological Survey also calculated there is about an 82 per cent chance the earthquake will be of magnitude-8 or higher.
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