Westpac's chief economist says recent falls in mortgage rates will boost house prices but warns of rising rates and falling prices from 2020.
In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens wrote that there were clear signs that recent falls in mortgage interest rates had boosted the market.
"It is clear that the rate of house price inflation has lifted recently," he said.
"This acceleration is coming from Auckland and Canterbury, which have shifted from slightly falling to slightly rising house prices, and from Otago and Southland, where house prices are rising fast.
"Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Wellington and few nearby regions has eased a little."
Stephens said rising sales volumes were a good pointer to the short term outlook for prices and the lift in sales reported by the REINZ in October was a good indicator that house price inflation was set to accelerate.
He picked that house prices could rise 1.5% in the March quarter, mainly driven by lower interest rates.
But he also warned that the lift in the market could be short lived.
"Mortgage interest rates will not keep falling forever," he said.
"Actually, wholesale fixed interest rates have risen quite sharply over the past week or two.
"That should at least arrest the decline in fixed mortgage rates, if not reverse it.
"This is why we think the current housing market upturn will be short-lived.
"We remain convinced that mortgage interest rates will eventually rise significantly.
"At that point, we expect the housing market to be severely impacted.
"But with the Reserve Bank looking to keep the OCR low for some time, this is more a story for the 2020s than the current decade.
"We are forecasting falling house prices in the early 2020s."
Poll: If we want to reduce speeding, what do you think actually changes driver behaviour? 🛻🚨🚓
In the Post's article on speeding penalties, the question is asked whether speeding fines are truly about road safety, or are they just a way to boost revenue for the Crown?
What do you think? Should speeding motorists receive speeding fines or demerit points?
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40.7% The sting of a fine (Money talks!)
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59.3% The threat of demerit points (Nobody wants to lose their license!)
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Scam Alert: Bank cold calls
ASB is warning customers about reports of cold calls from scammers claiming to be from ASB. These scammers are trying to obtain personal information, including usernames, dates of birth, and verification codes sent to your mobile phone.
🛡️ The "Caller Check" Test
If you get a call from someone claiming to be from ASB and you’re unsure, just ask them for a Caller Check. You will then be able to verify the call through the app.
Remember, banks will:
❌ Never ask for your banking passwords, PINs, or verification codes
❌ Never need to know your full credit card number – especially the CVC
❌ Never ask you to download software or remotely access your device
❌ Never ask you to purchase gift cards or transfer funds.
If you have received a phone call and think your account has been compromised, call ASB on 0800 ASB FRAUD (0800 272 372), or visit your local branch.
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