Westpac's chief economist says recent falls in mortgage rates will boost house prices but warns of rising rates and falling prices from 2020.
In Westpac's latest Home Truths newsletter Stephens wrote that there were clear signs that recent falls in mortgage interest rates had boosted the market.
"It is clear that the rate of house price inflation has lifted recently," he said.
"This acceleration is coming from Auckland and Canterbury, which have shifted from slightly falling to slightly rising house prices, and from Otago and Southland, where house prices are rising fast.
"Meanwhile, the rate of inflation in Wellington and few nearby regions has eased a little."
Stephens said rising sales volumes were a good pointer to the short term outlook for prices and the lift in sales reported by the REINZ in October was a good indicator that house price inflation was set to accelerate.
He picked that house prices could rise 1.5% in the March quarter, mainly driven by lower interest rates.
But he also warned that the lift in the market could be short lived.
"Mortgage interest rates will not keep falling forever," he said.
"Actually, wholesale fixed interest rates have risen quite sharply over the past week or two.
"That should at least arrest the decline in fixed mortgage rates, if not reverse it.
"This is why we think the current housing market upturn will be short-lived.
"We remain convinced that mortgage interest rates will eventually rise significantly.
"At that point, we expect the housing market to be severely impacted.
"But with the Reserve Bank looking to keep the OCR low for some time, this is more a story for the 2020s than the current decade.
"We are forecasting falling house prices in the early 2020s."
Best way to use leftovers?
I'm sure you've got some excess ham at home or cold roast potatoes.
What are some of your favourite ways to use leftover food from Christmas day? Share below.
⚠️ DOGS DIE IN HOT CARS. If you love them, don't leave them. ⚠️
It's a message we share time and time again, and this year, we're calling on you to help us spread that message further.
Did you know that calls to SPCA about dogs left inside hot cars made up a whopping 11% of all welfare calls last summer? This is a completely preventable issue, and one which is causing hundreds of dogs (often loved pets) to suffer.
Here are some quick facts to share with the dog owners in your life:
👉 The temperature inside a car can heat to over 50°C in less than 15 minutes.
👉 Parking in the shade and cracking windows does little to help on a warm day. Dogs rely on panting to keep cool, which they can't do in a hot car.
👉 This puts dogs at a high risk of heatstroke - a serious condition for dogs, with a mortality rate between 39%-50%.
👉 It is an offence under the Animal Welfare Act to leave a dog in a hot vehicle if they are showing signs of heat stress. You can be fined, and prosecuted.
SPCA has created downloadable resources to help you spread the message even further. Posters, a flyer, and a social media tile can be downloaded from our website here: www.spca.nz...
We encourage you to use these - and ask your local businesses to display the posters if they can. Flyers can be kept in your car and handed out as needed.
This is a community problem, and one we cannot solve alone. Help us to prevent more tragedies this summer by sharing this post.
On behalf of the animals - thank you ❤️
Poll: Would you rather: Christmas in summer forever or winter forever?
Just a bit of a fun poll to get you thinking.
If you had to live out your Christmas days, would you prefer it was a summer Christmas or a winter Christmas?
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61.9% Summer
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36.6% Winter
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1.5% Other - I'll share below
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