Cyclone Gabrielle

Gareth from Waikanae

Valid Sun 12 Feb 2023 to Thu 16 Feb 2023

Cyclone Gabrielle expected to bring significant severe weather to northern and central New Zealand from Sunday onwards

Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to move southeastwards out of the tropics and lie north of the country by Sunday. East to southeast winds will strengthen significantly over northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is high confidence of severe gales for Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula from Sunday through Tuesday.

Also from Sunday through Tuesday, there is high confidence of significant heavy rainfall over Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, and Gisborne.

This high confidence extends to Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and easternmost Waikato on Monday and Tuesday, when there is also low confidence for Taranaki, Waitomo, Taumarunui, and the remainder of Waikato.

On Tuesday, southeast gales are forecast to extend to central New Zealand, and there is high confidence that they could become severe, as indicated on the chart.

Finally, heavy rain is also likely on Tuesday about central areas from Marlborough to eastern Wellington and Wairarapa, and there is moderate risk that accumulations could meet warning criteria.

Very large waves and a storm surge are expected to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday, spreading south to Marlborough on Tuesday.