Immigration: Kiwi brain drain has peaked despite another year of record departures
Migrant departures reached a record 122,800 in the year to January 2025, up 18%.
Migrant arrivals were 155,300, down 31%, with a net migration gain of 32,500.
Economists warn low net migration could impact the housing market and economic recovery.
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The number of people leaving the country long-term hit another new record in the year to January – but monthly data suggests the brain drain has peaked.
Stats NZ provisional data for the January 2025 year (compared with January 2024) showed migrant departures up 18% to 122,800, the highest on record for an annual period.
Migrant arrivals, at 155,300 were down, 31% for the year.
There was an annual net migration gain of 32,500 (± 1500), compared with a net gain of 121,800.
Down from around 33,317 in the year to December, that was the lowest rate of net migration since 2014 (outside of the Covid-19 era).
In the past few weeks, economists have warned that low levels of net migration are providing a headwind for the residential housing market and may slow the overall economic recovery.
“Over the past few months, we’ve seen net migration stabilise at annualised rates around 25-35k. It leaves us with a view of positive but below average expansion in the population over the next 18 months or so,” BNZ chief economist Mike Jones said in a note last month.
“That adds to the list of factors likely to check the pace of recovery this year.”
Commenting on the latest numbers, ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted that weaker net immigration had “eroded a key leg of support for the New Zealand housing market, domestic demand, and labour market capacity”.
“Easing economic support from net immigration will weigh on economic growth and translate into greater spare capacity,” he said.
Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 234,800 in the year ended October 2023. Annual net migration peaked in the year ended October 2023 with a gain of 135,500.
For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss of 44,200 in the January 2025 year shows a stabilisation of the ‘brain-drain’ trend.
It was a slight improvement from a net migration loss of 44,700 Kiwis in the January 2024 year, and a loss of 44,375 for the year to December 2024.
The monthly data shows the rate of Kiwi departures peaked in the year to August 2024 when a net 47,147 departed long-term.
That was still high compared to an average annual net migration loss of 27,100 in the January years 2002 to 2013 and an average annual net migration loss of 7500 in the January years 2014 to 2019, Stats NZ said.
For migrant arrivals in the January 2025 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 25,800 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of New Zealand, 25,000; China, 17,600; and the Philippines, 14,000.
For migrant departures in the January 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were still the largest group, with 69,200 departures.
The next largest groups were citizens of China, 7900; India, 5800, and the United Kingdom, 4500.
Citizens of India, the Philippines, and China drove net migration gains in the January 2025 year, Stats NZ said.
Country of citizenship is the nationality of the passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.
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Poll: If we want to reduce speeding, what do you think actually changes driver behaviour? 🛻🚨🚓
In the Post's article on speeding penalties, the question is asked whether speeding fines are truly about road safety, or are they just a way to boost revenue for the Crown?
What do you think? Should speeding motorists receive speeding fines or demerit points?
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36.7% The sting of a fine (Money talks!)
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63.3% The threat of demerit points (Nobody wants to lose their license!)
🎉 Riddle me this, legends! 🎉
He/She who makes it, sells it.
He/She who buys it, doesn't use it.
The user doesn't know they are using it.
What is it?
(Shezz from Ngāruawāhia kindly provided this head-scratcher ... thanks, Shezz!)
Do you think you know the answer? Simply 'Like' this post if you know the answer and the big reveal will be posted in the comments at 2pm on the day!
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The Bible Declares That God is Bringing Jews Back To Their Ancient Land of Israel
The Bible reveals that God has chosen and cherished one specific people and one specific land to serve as the stage for revealing His plan and purpose to all nations. As we read in Deuteronomy chapter 7, verse six, speaking of the Jews: “The Lord thy God hath chosen thee to be a special people unto himself, above all people that are upon the face of the earth.”
God’s ultimate purpose is to transform the world by establishing His Divine Rule in His new Kingdom based in Jerusalem. This will occur when Jesus Christ returns as King during a time of great trouble. At that moment, God will intervene to save first the Jewish people from destruction and gather them from all parts of the earth. Upon Christ’s return, God will put out a Call to be universally honoured, and a lasting peace will finally be established throughout the World. This has been his design from Creation which was told to the Fathers of Isreal first and then to the rest of the World by the teaching of Jesus and then his disciples in the New Testament.
**Exile and the Promise of Return**
Today, the Jewish people have often been cursed and despised among the nations. However, the prophets foretold that when Jesus returns, God will settle them in the land of Israel in security and safety. The historical rejection and crucifixion of their Messiah resulted in their greatest exile from the land, a dispersion that has lasted for approximately two thousand years.
Yet, in direct fulfilment of Old Testament prophecies, God is now regathering the Jews to their ancestral homeland. As the prophet Isaiah declares, “For the Lord will have mercy upon Jacob, and will yet choose Israel, and set them in their own land” (Isaiah 14:1). While Israel was scattered by God due to their failure to live obediently as His chosen nation, God promised He would never utterly forsake them. The prophet Ezekiel confirms this, stating,
“Behold, I will take the children of Israel from among the heathen, whither they be gone, and will gather them on every side, and bring them into their own land” (Ezekiel 37:21).
**Fulfilment: The Modern State of Israel**
The promise of God to bring His people back to the land is proven and demonstrated by the establishment of the modern State of Israel in 1948. The Word of God declared,
“I will bring again the captivity of my people Israel and Judah, saith the Lord, and I will cause them to return to the land” (Jeremiah 30:3).
Since 1948, we have witnessed Jews returning from all over the world to occupy the ancient land that was promised to the fathers of the nation: Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. This movement fulfils the words of Ezekiel:
“For I will take you from among the heathen, and gather you out of all countries, and will bring you into your own land” (Ezekiel 36:24).
The undeniable return of the Jews to the land of Israel demonstrates that God is sovereignly guiding their destiny. Because we see these specific prophecies fulfilled, we can be assured that those prophecies yet to be fulfilled will also come to pass.
**God’s Unseen Hand in the Regathering**
The regathering of the Jews to the land of Israel is fundamentally the work of Almighty God in our time. It is not simply a political movement driven by the desire of the Jewish people to establish a nation and homeland. Rather, God’s unseen hand is behind the events that have led to the revival of the nation of Israel.
The Bible emphasises God’s personal involvement in this return through numerous passages:
- “Behold, I will save my people... and I will bring them, and they shall dwell in the midst of Jerusalem” (Zechariah 8:7-8).
- “I will save thee from afar, and thy seed from the land of their captivity; and Jacob shall return” (Jeremiah 30:10).
- “I will bring again the captivity of my people Israel, and they shall build the waste cities” (Amos 9:14).
- “I will surely assemble, O Jacob, all of thee; I will surely gather the remnant of Israel” (Micah 2:12).
**Conclusion: A Sign of Christ’s Return**
God is regathering Israel today. The very existence of the modern State of Israel is a clear and powerful sign that Almighty God is working amongst the nations. The Bible states that He “shall assemble the outcasts of Israel, and gather together the dispersed of Judah from the four corners of the earth” (Isaiah 11:12). This prophetic work is underway.
Israel sees their return as prophetical, but few understand that God will create events where first they will eventually be humbled by her neighbours before Christ returns as their Saviour. Read Ezekiel 38 & 39 to gain an incite as to what God's destiny fot Israel is.
We have seen for the last 125 years, the call for their return to their Homeland and its subsequent founding. This is God's reassurance to the World that He'll bring the World under His Blessing. Because of this, we can be confident that Jesus Christ will soon return to this earth to establish the Kingdom of God, a time of peace and plenty for every nation.
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