Interest Rates: RBNZ OCR
2pm Wed 28 Feb, the RBNZ will unveil its eagerly awaited OCR decision, marking the first such announcement since 29 Nov 2023. What can we anticipate?
The RBNZ has adopted a hawkish stance, signaling potential rate hikes amidst concerns over domestic inflation - a sentiment echoed by ANZ's Chief Economist, NZ's largest bank.
Contrastingly, the majority of economists have taken a dovish position, cautioning against rate increases. They underscore the impacts of the successive rate hikes (+4.25%) over the past 2.5yrs and the softening underlying GDP, despite robust migration figures.
Adding to the complexity, our Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, has characterized the nation's current state as "fragile."
Market sentiment have been oscillating. Wholesale market funding rates experienced a -1.16% decline from 4 Oct to 29 Dec 2023, (refer to 2yr swap rate graphic). However, since then, they have rebounded, increasing +0.57%. Concurrently, retail mortgage rates have seen some reduction but not to the same extent.
Market dynamics are influenced by a plethora of factors, including local and international data releases like employment figures, inflation rates, and GDP growth. Moreover, commentary from influential figures - sometimes referred to as "jawboning" - can significantly sway market sentiment.
Ultimately, the RBNZ holds the reins, but it's far from a predetermined outcome.
If you are seeking independent guidance on your refix, restructuring, or refinancing options, reach out to adviceHQ today.
#advicehq #RBNZ #ocr #interestrates #mortgagerates
Poll: Are Kiwis allergic to “exuberance”? 🥝
In The Post’s opinion piece on the developments set to open across Aotearoa in 2026, John Coop suggests that, as a nation, we’re “allergic to exuberance.”
We want to know: Are we really allergic to showing our excitement?
Is it time to lean into a more optimistic view of the place we call home? As big projects take shape and new opportunities emerge, perhaps it’s worth asking whether a little more confidence (and enthusiasm!) could do us some good.
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40.9% Yes
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33.9% Maybe?
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25.2% No
Scam Alert: Fake information regarding December Bonuses from MSD
The Ministry of Social Development is reporting that fake information is circulating about new ‘December bonuses’ or ‘benefit increases’
If you get suspicious communication, please contact Netsafe.
Neighbourhood Challenge: Who Can Crack This One? ⛓️💥❔
What has a head but no brain?
Do you think you know the answer? Simply 'Like' this post if you know the answer and the big reveal will be posted in the comments at 2pm on the day!
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