Immigration: Kiwi brain drain has peaked despite another year of record departures
Migrant departures reached a record 122,800 in the year to January 2025, up 18%.
Migrant arrivals were 155,300, down 31%, with a net migration gain of 32,500.
Economists warn low net migration could impact the housing market and economic recovery.
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The number of people leaving the country long-term hit another new record in the year to January – but monthly data suggests the brain drain has peaked.
Stats NZ provisional data for the January 2025 year (compared with January 2024) showed migrant departures up 18% to 122,800, the highest on record for an annual period.
Migrant arrivals, at 155,300 were down, 31% for the year.
There was an annual net migration gain of 32,500 (± 1500), compared with a net gain of 121,800.
Down from around 33,317 in the year to December, that was the lowest rate of net migration since 2014 (outside of the Covid-19 era).
In the past few weeks, economists have warned that low levels of net migration are providing a headwind for the residential housing market and may slow the overall economic recovery.
“Over the past few months, we’ve seen net migration stabilise at annualised rates around 25-35k. It leaves us with a view of positive but below average expansion in the population over the next 18 months or so,” BNZ chief economist Mike Jones said in a note last month.
“That adds to the list of factors likely to check the pace of recovery this year.”
Commenting on the latest numbers, ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted that weaker net immigration had “eroded a key leg of support for the New Zealand housing market, domestic demand, and labour market capacity”.
“Easing economic support from net immigration will weigh on economic growth and translate into greater spare capacity,” he said.
Annual migrant arrivals peaked at 234,800 in the year ended October 2023. Annual net migration peaked in the year ended October 2023 with a gain of 135,500.
For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss of 44,200 in the January 2025 year shows a stabilisation of the ‘brain-drain’ trend.
It was a slight improvement from a net migration loss of 44,700 Kiwis in the January 2024 year, and a loss of 44,375 for the year to December 2024.
The monthly data shows the rate of Kiwi departures peaked in the year to August 2024 when a net 47,147 departed long-term.
That was still high compared to an average annual net migration loss of 27,100 in the January years 2002 to 2013 and an average annual net migration loss of 7500 in the January years 2014 to 2019, Stats NZ said.
For migrant arrivals in the January 2025 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 25,800 arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of New Zealand, 25,000; China, 17,600; and the Philippines, 14,000.
For migrant departures in the January 2025 year, citizens of New Zealand were still the largest group, with 69,200 departures.
The next largest groups were citizens of China, 7900; India, 5800, and the United Kingdom, 4500.
Citizens of India, the Philippines, and China drove net migration gains in the January 2025 year, Stats NZ said.
Country of citizenship is the nationality of the passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.
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A riddle to start the festive season 🌲🎁🌟
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Some Choice News!
Many New Zealand gardens aren’t seeing as many monarch butterflies fluttering around their swan plants and flower beds these days — the hungry Asian paper wasp has been taking its toll.
Thanks to people like Alan Baldick, who’s made it his mission to protect the monarch, his neighbours still get to enjoy these beautiful butterflies in their own backyards.
Thinking about planting something to invite more butterflies, bees, and birds into your garden?
Thanks for your mahi, Alan! We hope this brings a smile!
Why does New Zealand take such a long summer holiday break?
Most Kiwis are counting down the days until their summer holiday - whether they're heading off camping, heading to the bach or just taking a few lazy days at the beach.
But has it always been this way?
Richard Wolfe is a cultural historian and the author of more than 40 books about Aotearoa.
"Leaving town over Xmas and January has become a key part of the local cultural identity," Wolfe said.
The New Zealand History website, operated by the Ministry for Culture and Heritage, calls the summer lull an "end-of-year prize for being a New Zealander".
However, not everyone is 100 percent on board with our somewhat leisurely summer pause.
A post on LinkedIn by business adviser Toss Grumley went viral in the past week, as Grumley wrote that he was "baffled every year by New Zealand's intense Christmas shut down".
"In what world as an economy and country are we operating in an environment where no business discussion can happen for a period of ten weeks," he asked. His question sparked debates on news and social media sites.
On NewsTalk ZB on Monday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he had spent much of his career working overseas where the long holiday break wasn't the same.
"In the US you maybe get two weeks' annual leave holiday and Christmas is a couple of days off and you're back at it again.
"I've always been used to going back to work on the 3rd or 4th of January," he said.
Auckland Business Chamber head Simon Bridges told Stuff : "There is a view that New Zealand just shuts down not just for Christmas and New Year, but in many cases, all the way through to March."
How did our long summer break become such a Kiwi institution, anyway?
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Wolfe said one of the big factors behind our long summer break is, well, the summer weather. Our Australian cousins benefit from that, too.
"I suggest that what's behind the 'summer break' is, fairly obviously, the local (antipodean) climate," he said.
Christmas in the Northern Hemisphere is in the middle of winter which isn't quite as conducive to long camping holidays and days at the beach.
And despite the image of an entire country putting on the brakes, not everyone in New Zealand actually takes off the entire summer until March.
"We want to shop, go to the movies or watch TV, and we expect everything to be available, so hospitals, power suppliers, the police and many other essential services still run 24/7," NZ History noted. "And if we live on a farm, then summer means more work, not holidays."
We also roll Christmas and New Year together with our "summer holiday," which places like America and Europe tend to do in August. There are also only a couple of public holidays between June and Christmas like Matariki and Labour Day.
One commenter wrote on Grumley's LinkedIn post that "people are exhausted by the end of the year" here in New Zealand, "so we shut down for a solid month".
Changing laws, changing transport
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Holidays as we think of them now are a fairly modern invention.
According to Te Ara the online encyclopedia of New Zealand, originally the two statutory holidays for Christmas and New Year's at the height of summer "provided a compelling reason" to take a break.
As far back as the 1860s even gold miners would take a break then, as Coromandel goldfields granted two weeks' special protections over claims.
The long holiday began to evolve over the 20th century thanks to tightening labour laws and the growth of wider travel with the introduction of the automobile and trains.
"Another important factor may have been the introduction of the Annual Holidays Act in 1944, making a two-week paid holiday a legal entitlement for full-time employers," Wolfe said.
Compared to some countries, Kiwis get a generous amount of paid leave time.
The latest version of the Holidays Act from 2003 entitles employees to at least four weeks of paid annual leave after 12 months of continuous work.
That's quite a contrast to, say, America, where there is no legally mandated paid holiday time.
New Zealand's geography and compact size meant the beach was the most likely place for labourers and their families to go.
"Because no part of the country is more than 120 km from the nearest coastline, the beach and associated baches became popular destinations," Wolfe said.
"I would suggest that the 'summer break' was established in the period of post-war prosperity in the 1950s, with the continuing growth in the number of privately owned cars, thereby increasing personal and family mobility."
But does a break really impact our economy?
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In his opinion piece, Grumley claimed the long holiday affects New Zealand's productivity.
Not everyone agrees.
"Work less, live more," one commenter wrote in response to his post.
Fleur Fitzsimons, national secretary of the union Public Service Association, said holidays are important to workers.
"New Zealand has a culture of long hours, workers need more holidays to recharge, reconnect with their families and get ready for the working year ahead."
The government has announced changes to the Holidays Act, which would see both annual and sick leave accumulate based on hours worked. Unions and opposition parties have said they fear that could trample workers' rights and entitlements.
Fitzsimons said the government has been taking rights away from workers by cancelling pay equity and introducing changes to the Employment Relations Act, calling it "out of touch" with the needs of working New Zealanders.
"If the government is serious about improving productivity, cutting holidays is the wrong approach.
"We have a mental health crisis in New Zealand - the last thing we should be doing is talking about fewer holidays."
Wolfe said that the current summer break may help workers recharge their energy for the year ahead.
"A shorter break might in fact have the opposite effect - creating disgruntlement among workers who feel they're being short-changed," Wolfe said.
"And as climate change kicks in and the world gets warmer, perhaps the summer break will become vital for maintaining the health and welfare of New Zealanders."
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