Covid, & NZ Govt Approach

John from Greerton - Parkvale

Realistically, the Govt had two options: either try to constrain the virus, or try to continue as normal in the (forlorn) hope of keeping the economy ticking along, while hoping that our immune systems would develop antibodies leading to herd immunity. The first option has so far, shown itself (Worldwide) to be the most sensible. The Countries that went down this path have had the best outcomes to date, even though some have struggled even with this approach.

The problems with the latter approach were:

a) no-one knew for certain that natural immunity would develop

b) the infection fatality rate was unknown and unpredictable

c) there could be a high to very high number of dead before the necessary 60% of the population had been infected for 'herd immunity' to effectively control the virus.

d) there was no guarantee that herd immunity could develop nor how long it might take.

e) the rapid spread of the virus indicated that its contagion rate was dramatic, and it was evolving very, very rapidly, making it much harder to predict, control, or develop a vaccine against.

f) it was/is closely related to two previous viral diseases for which there is still no vaccine nor treatment, and both of which have very high IFR's.

*a) Even as I write, there is no positivity about immunity. There are signs (which are to be expected) that some of the recovered persons have developed antibodies, but there are also indications that these antibodies may be quite short lived. Thus any vaccines developed may need to be supported with an ongoing revaccination program to be effective. And while there is one drug (Remdesivir) which has been shown to be of some assistance in the recovery of some of those in intensive care, there is no drug available which gives certainty to recovery. Furthermore, at the time of our lock-down, there was no known beneficial drug available at any level.

*b) Even now, the IFR varies wildly across the Globe. The US, for instance, has an IFR of 3.4%, the UK's IFR is 13.1%. Brazil is 3.2%. China is 5.5%, Spain 6.4%, Italy 13.4% Ours is currently 1.3%. And while considering & digesting these numbers, keep in mind also that there have been many deaths (in the USA in particular) where the suspected cause is Corvid, but because of a shortage of tests & testing facilities available (testing the dead uses a test which can be better used among the living) to confirm positivity, these have not been recorded as Covid deaths. So the real figure is in fact, relatively actually unknown. covid19info.live...

*c) Professor William Hanage is a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University and wrote an article published in The Guardian on April 16th 2020 about the UK path of herd immunity, estimating that at least 600,000 (out of a population of almost 68,000,000) in the UK would probably have to die in order to reach a realistic Herd Immunity level that might succeed. Using the same percentages, we would be looking at around 38,000 deaths in NZ to achieve a similar result. I suspect that the cacophony of screams would be so loud, we'd all need ear protection. www.theguardian.com...

*d) Because the virus is so novel, there is no guarantee of Herd Immunity, and because of its close relationship to SARS & Mers (78.9%), for which there is still no vaccine nor efficacious treatment, there may never be such a Utopia.

*e) Our current resurgence has two quite different strains of the same virus, and that is only from two other countries.

*f) SARS, from 2003-2004, had an IFR of about 9.56%, Mers has demonstrated an IFR of between 20% & 44% in the two countries that have had the most appreciable outbreaks. Fortunately, these two variations of Corona Virus have shown relatively low rates of infection transfer. But at the time of our lock-down, no-one knew with any degree of certainty, what the IFR for Covid-19 would be, other than that it was abundantly clear that its infection transfer rate was dramatically higher than that of its cousins.

The bottom line is therefore, that in the light of what was (and still is) known about Covid, our Govt did the most practicable & sensible thing by instituting a lock-down. The World's Nations Economies have all 'taken a bath' because of this pandemic: who will come out in better economic shape when the pandemic is finally behind us (which, incidentally, could be several years), is more a matter for the Gods than it is for Mortal Man. But on the face of it, we, as a Nation are doing better than most right now.

The 'Black Death of the 14th Century in England almost halved the population. They didn't have any “White Knights' in the form of Scientists & Pharmaceutical Giants able to throw massive resources at trying to solve the problem. All they had was horses & carts to haul away the dead. Imagine what that would do to our Society & our Economy. The influenza outbreak of 1918, commonly known as the Spanish flu, also came before there were any remedies or vaccines available. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this pandemic infected about a third of the world’s population and killed at least 50 million people even though by then there were Pharmaceuticals & Scientists (as infant industries). Rather than bandying around (ridiculous, for the most part) conspiracy theories about 'Big Pharma' and business tycoons & Govts wanting to 'control' us, we should be bloody grateful that there are people and businesses willing to gamble huge amounts of money in an extremely chancy exercise hoping to find either a vaccine or a treatment. Hopefully, both, but the odds are not wonderful as the common cold has been around for a very long time and still no real cure, let alone a prevention.

In the final analysis, it is not just New Zealand's Society & Economy; the World's economy and its Societies are all suffering. When it is all over, we will be living in a Brave New World. Hopefully, wiser and better prepared, and without doubt under a new World Order. Particularly as far as World Economics are concerned.

Meantime, all the people moaning & complaining about 'restrictions on their freedom' should reflect upon the dire situations in Countries such as the USA & Brazil, and thank their lucky stars that our current Govt had sufficient sense to listen to some experts and act upon those experts advice. Mull over the situation that we might have been in had the previous Govts idiot of a Health Minister still been in charge.